Who Is at Risk of Deportation in Nashville Amid Trump’s Policies?

January 27, 2025

The landscape of U.S. immigration is complex, with different categories of legal status and a variety of pathways leading to deportation risk. Amid President Donald Trump’s promises of mass deportations focusing on immigrants without legal status, it becomes imperative to understand who is actually at risk and how many such individuals reside in Nashville, Tennessee. Tennessee boasts a significant immigrant population, particularly in Davidson County, where around 110,000 immigrants constitute 15.5% of the population— notably higher than any other county in the state. Within this population, approximately two-thirds are granted some form of legal status. These legal statuses vary and carry different levels of protection against deportation.

Categories with Strongest Legal Protections

Naturalized Citizens

Naturalized citizens hold the highest level of protection against deportation. To become a U.S. citizen, an individual must first secure legal permanent residency and live in the country for three to five years, depending on how they obtained their status. This process requires passing a citizenship test covering American government and civics and demonstrating basic English proficiency. They must also exhibit good moral character, free of certain crimes that could bar them from becoming citizens. According to recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey, 37.2% of immigrants in Davidson County—around 41,000 individuals—have achieved citizenship.

Permanent Residents

Permanent residents, also known as green card holders, have the right to live in the U.S. indefinitely but do not have all the privileges of citizenship, such as voting rights and jury service. Their status can be jeopardized by long absences from the U.S. or committing certain crimes. Obtaining a green card involves various pathways, including employer sponsorship, marrying a U.S. citizen, or being approved as a refugee or asylum-seeker. The federal government caps the issuance of new green cards each year, leading to substantial backlogs—in some cases up to 30 years—causing many immigrants to rely on temporary legal statuses while awaiting permanent residency.

Work Visas

Temporary legal status through employment is another common route taken by immigrants. Notable work visas include the H-1B, for jobs requiring a college degree, particularly in the fields of science and technology. These visas are issued for up to three years and can be renewed once. The H-1B visa process is highly competitive, with between 200,000 to 600,000 applicants vying for just 85,000 slots annually. Other work visas include the H-2A for seasonal agricultural work and the H-2B for other seasonal labor needs. Employers often sponsor work visa holders for permanent residency, but the process is rigorous and slow.

Vulnerable Categories with Shakier Legal Ground

Refugees

Refugees, who flee violence, persecution, or natural disasters, are vetted by the U.S. government, often through international organizations like the U.N. High Council on Refugees. Refugees must apply for a green card upon arrival in the U.S. and may stay pending approval. As of 2019, Nashville was home to 11,208 refugees, primarily from Myanmar, Somalia, and Iraq. The future, however, looks uncertain for these refugees, as President Trump indefinitely suspended the U.S. refugee program, canceling previously approved travel plans.

Asylum Seekers

Asylum seekers, similar to refugees, flee dangerous situations in their home countries. However, unlike refugees, they must make their asylum claim upon arrival in the U.S. Asylum seekers face prolonged waits to have their cases heard in court. While they wait, some manage to obtain work permits. Successful claims can lead to permanent residency, while unsuccessful ones result in deportation. Some asylum seekers may enter the U.S. using temporary status and later claim asylum due to changing conditions in their home country. The protracted timeframes and uncertainty experienced by asylum seekers add to their precarious situation.

Temporary Protected Status (TPS)

Temporary Protected Status (TPS) is granted to nationals from countries experiencing extreme conditions such as war or political turmoil. However, recipients must already be present in the U.S. when the crisis unfolds. An example is the status granted to Ukrainians following the Russian invasion, provided they arrived within the first 18 months. TPS does not equate to permanence; recipients must transition to other legal statuses like asylum. The future of TPS was questioned after President Trump ended similar programs for Haitians, Nicaraguans, Cubans, and Venezuelans.

Highest Risk of Deportation

Undocumented Immigrants

Undocumented immigrants, those without any legal status, face the highest risk of deportation. This group includes individuals who either overstayed their visas or entered the U.S. without proper authorization. Davidson County alone is estimated to have at least 33,000 undocumented immigrants, predominantly from Mexico or Central America. They form substantial parts of key workforce sectors, including farm work (approximately 40%) and construction (around 12%). This demographic includes Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients, often referred to as Dreamers, who arrived as children and received temporary protection under the Obama administration. Although President Trump showed interest in continuing DACA, he attempted to end it in 2017, casting uncertainty over their future.

Trends, Consensus, and the Legal Landscape

The landscape of immigration in the United States is intricate, involving diverse categories of legal status and numerous pathways that can lead to the risk of deportation. With President Donald Trump’s promises of large-scale deportations targeting immigrants without legal status, it is crucial to understand who is actually at risk and the number of such individuals residing in Nashville, Tennessee. Tennessee has a notable immigrant population, particularly in Davidson County, where approximately 110,000 immigrants make up about 15.5% of the population—a figure markedly higher than any other county in the state. Within this immigrant community, around two-thirds have been granted some form of legal status. These legal statuses are varied and offer different levels of protection against deportation risks. Understanding these differences is essential, as it provides clarity on who might be affected by potential policy changes and helps in assessing the impact of immigration enforcement efforts on the community.

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