After having run up about 180 percent between March 2009 and the middle of last year, the S&P 500 is off about 10 percent. The declines have been damaging to portfolios, to the egos of chief executives, to the bonuses of bankers, and to the confidence of many. And the incipient bear market has people fretting about the prospect of recession.
One large bank in early February said there was a 40 percent chance of economic contraction. CNBC.com recently ran a story under the headline “History indicates a recession is ahead: Technician,” in which technical analyst Carter Worth said that the current movements of utilities, bonds, the S&P 500 index, and gold show a pattern that, in the past, has accompanied recession.
